Brexit costing Britain £500m a week and rising, compared to £350m dividend touted by Leave campaign

#1
Brexit is already costing the public purse £500m a week, new research has found – a stark contrast to the £350m “dividend” promised by the Leave campaign. The Centre for European Reform’s analysis also suggests that the government’s austerity drive would be on the way to completion had Britain voted to stay in the European Union.

It shows that the UK economy is already 2.5% smaller than it would have been had Remain won the referendum. Public finances have been dented by £26bn a year, more than half of the defence budget. This translates to a penalty of £500m a week, a figure that is growing.

The stark finding comes as the Tory conference begins in Birmingham, with Theresa May’s premiership under severe strain. The prime minister faces competing proposals from cabinet ministers over how she should resolve the Brexit impasse with the EU.

The febrile conference coincides with explosive claims that the boss of one UK-based carmaker has been flown by private jet to meet President Emmanuel Macron, in an attempt to persuade the company to move manufacturing to France after Brexit.

Carolyn Fairbairn, director general of the Confederation of British Industry, told the Observer this development was a sign of the damage Britain faces from the wrong deal.

While some ministers are pushing for a loose, Canada-style trade deal, support is growing in May’s ministerial team for a deal under which Britain would stay closely tied to the EU for a limited period.

May is being warned that for some businesses a Canada-style deal is little better than crashing out of the EU with no agreement in place. Fairbairn said that companies were already acting to minimise the impact of trade friction at Britain’s borders.

Meanwhile, Britain’s wealthiest funder of independent scientific research, the Wellcome Trust, says it is losing patience with the government. Writing in the Observer, the trust’s director states that in common with industry and universities, his organisation – which spends more than £1bn a year on medical research – is increasingly nervous. “No deal would leave a void on access to funding, regulation and, critically, migration,” Jeremy Farrar states. “Wellcome … wants to support researchers, wherever they are from, in order to tackle the greatest global health challenges. But if the conditions and the culture here are damaged that will affect our support. It is not unconditional.”

The CER thinktank’s model on the costs of Brexit examined its impact up until the end of June. It said the findings were a central estimate that contained a margin of error. Researchers created a model of how the economy would have fared had Remain won in June 2016. An earlier estimate in the summer suggested that Britain’s economy was 2.1% smaller than it would have been by the end of the first quarter of 2018. As it has developed its model and updated it for the second quarter of 2018, the gap has grown.

The model also suggests that had Britain not voted to leave, the deficit would be down to just 0.1% of GDP, or £2bn. It would mean the austerity drive in place since 2010 would be all but complete.
Trump: Hold my beer, old chap?

But seriously.... 180 Days Till Brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/britain-bill-brexit-hits-500-million-pounds-a-week
 
#7
That's expert talk so get on with it.

:(

Don't worry we will take it on the chin like good servants. Hard choices for everyone but the rich.
 
#12
Also, what is really that wrong with the Canada-style deal? I fail to see how having no deal at all and exiting from the single market, would be better than an actually getting a deal like we got with the EU?

Seriously, what are the odds of a last second referendum at this point, or at least completing kicking out the Tories, and then negotiating a "Sorry we fucked up, take some penalty money for the grievance we caused the EU, but take us back" sort of thing? I know it doesn't seem likely, but would the EU be willing to bring the UK back in? Or does a hard lesson to any future countries that might want to do the same as the UK, become more of a priority for the EU?
 
#18
Is the UK enjoying their freedom yet? How much freedom per week are you getting?3



When they implemented the mandatory work on gulag construction for everyone over the age of 8, I started to get doubts about this. But now that you mention it, yeah, it kinda sounds Soviet...
As much as you can get from selling jam, gateau, and french knickers.
 
#21
At least us in America can defend ourselves by citing Trump losing the popular vote. But the UK voted for this shit by a clear majority.
I dunno, friend. A 51.89/48.11 split doesn't seem like that much of a huge clear majority IMO. Basically only a difference of around 1.2 million votes. That is close.

Then you consider the whole Cambridge Analytica thing that came out afterwards.

I think there were actually more people who wanted to stay, but got screwed.
 
#22
Don't forget the bill for replicating all EU institutions, processes, oversight, regulatory, trade and other such stuff that the EU did for a bargain considering it was for 28 countries and 100+ around the world in trade deals.

That's going to cost a pretty penny for the UK who will be doing it lonesome.

Oh, farming subsidies etc.

Final bill and ongoing bill. Ouch.
 
#24
The breaks should have been put on this a hell of a long time ago. But nope, some people just want to crash head first into disaster.
 
#25
You mean the Tories are lying cunts? If only we'd known!

At least us in America can defend ourselves by citing Trump losing the popular vote. But the UK voted for this shit by a clear majority.
It was a fairly narrow vote iirc, but yeah... no getting away from the fact that's still a lot of fucking morons making short sighted decisions based on lies and ignorance.
 
#28
You mean the Tories are lying cunts? If only we'd known!



It was a fairly narrow vote iirc, but yeah... no getting away from the fact that's still a lot of fucking morons making short sighted decisions based on lies and ignorance.
I really think critical thinking should be taught in schools. In saying that it was the Xenophobic older generation that decided to fuck us all over as the last thing they do on their way out. Fuckers.
 
#31
I'm starting to think Brexit won't happen.

Probably wishful thinking, and if it does then I have a few plans to maybe profit on it, but still... would be nice if the way things are going it doesn't happen.
 
#35
That's the price of racism...

Being from Jersey, Channel Islands, makes this a particularly bitter pill to swallow, because we're directly effected by the Brexit mess, yet we didn't actually get to vote in the referendum.
 
#36
So much stupid to enjoy for so long. Man I'm glad I'm not looking to stay in the UK long term. 5 years and I should be gone...

I don't consider myself British anymore.

ps3ud0 8)
 
#42
I dunno, friend. A 51.89/48.11 split doesn't seem like that much of a huge clear majority IMO. Basically only a difference of around 1.2 million votes. That is close.

Then you consider the whole Cambridge Analytica thing that came out afterwards.

I think there were actually more people who wanted to stay, but got screwed.
Check your math, m8
 
#43
Sorry, what did I miss? Can you help point it out to me?

The final percentage of Leave was 51.89%, and the Stay was listed as 48.11%

Leave tally was listed as 17,410,742
Stay tally was listed as 16,141,241
Difference of 1, 269, 501
They did say there was a margin of about 99.92 valid votes because around 25k couldn't be confirmed

Seriously if I misrepresented something, my apologies as that was not my intention. But help me out, what did I miss in the math?

My last point about feeling that there were actually more that wanted to stay but got screwed, was a reference to possible tampering, similar to what occurred in the US.
 
#44
Sorry, what did I miss? Can you help point it out to me?

The final percentage of Leave was 51.89%, and the Stay was listed as 48.11%

Leave tally was listed as 17,410,742
Stay tally was listed as 16,141,241
Difference of 1, 269, 501
They did say there was a margin of about 99.92 valid votes because around 25k couldn't be confirmed

Seriously if I misrepresented something, my apologies as that was not my intention. But help me out, what did I miss in the math?

My last point about feeling that there were actually more that wanted to stay but got screwed, was a reference to possible tampering, similar to what occurred in the US.
Sorry, I thought you were talking about the US delta in the presidential election
 
#46
“You don’t seem to be prepared to put your own future on the line when you’re prepared to put everybody else’s futures on the line.”, damn, this needs to be said to more slimy ratfucking politicians on both sides of the pond.
 
#48
Also, what is really that wrong with the Canada-style deal? I fail to see how having no deal at all and exiting from the single market, would be better than an actually getting a deal like we got with the EU?

Seriously, what are the odds of a last second referendum at this point, or at least completing kicking out the Tories, and then negotiating a "Sorry we fucked up, take some penalty money for the grievance we caused the EU, but take us back" sort of thing? I know it doesn't seem likely, but would the EU be willing to bring the UK back in? Or does a hard lesson to any future countries that might want to do the same as the UK, become more of a priority for the EU?
I'm not really familiar enough with the situation to understand what a Canada-style deal would actually mean and someone from the UK or with a better understanding would have to fill in here, but from my limited understanding of Brexit and its problems as an ignorant American, what immediately comes to mind is what would that mean for the whole Ireland(EU)/Northern Ireland (now not EU, as part of the UK) situation? Like, avoiding a hard border/checkpoints being necessitated all along the border between the North and ROI, and violating the Good Friday agreement and all that (which call for there to be absolutely no such thing between the two countries)? Because as an ignorant American, I don't know much, but I now that Ireland/Northern Ireland is a huge problem for a lot of these hypothetical deals so would a Canada-style deal actually avoid that or is it the same thing and thus a complete non-starter right off the bat?

Like, obviously either way No Deal would also result in that same exact situation regardless for sure... But I know that a lot of these hypothetical deals have the same issue and run into issues regarding Ireland all the same, which make them as much of a non-starter as No Deal, or at least they should--I'm just not quite familiar enough with the situation and each individual proposal to know if a Canada-style deal would be one of those that has that particular issue.
 
#49
But...but ...blue passports, that makes it all worth crippling the country, right Brexiters? Yeah, that'll show Europe, when we fall flat on our fucking faces in an attempt to stop the 'floods of immigrants taking all our jobs' that just never actually happened, no matter how many times it was scare-mongered to occur. Wonder what the next excuse for Tory greed and incompetence will be? Back to single mothers again? Hell, fuck it, they seem to be all about tradition, go retro with the moral panics...
DOWN WITH MODS AND ROCKERS! VIDEO NASTIES! THOSE DAMN HOMELESS! etc. Whatever it takes to really fuck over the poor and infirm and deflect the blame. Fucking bunch of slimy pricks in charge of this shitshow.
 
#50
I know that us yanks in the US have it bad with Trump and his brood but Jeez I couldn't imagine the anxiety I'd have from knowing that my country was about to fall off a cliff in 180 days.

Are there any signs that the UK and the EU are even close at all to a deal?
 
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