Pretty sure the story is that Nintendo approached Ubisoft at e3 2017.
Grand Prix is a maybe, if it started at early 2016, it could’ve easily been canceled early on.
TF was done by the end of 2013. Not sure when they decided to be a 2 project studio, but their dev hell project probably started first.
For God of War nothing special was expected and that's what happened. For Spider-Man we knew it was unknown territory and there were some hints that it would sell well but nothing indicated the number of sales it finally achieved.
Red Dead Redemption 2 is closer to God of War. Marketing push could give it a boost closer to release but for the type of game it is something around 200-300k looks to be the range for it.
Sorry for the dp, but PixelPar (the guy who accurately knew about Let's Go) just said that Animal Crossing would release in March/April suggesting a pre-Golden Week release.
That would be a first for the series but also the first time a game in the series will release simultaneously worldwide. City Folk was pretty close with a 3 weeks gap but then New Leaf had a 7 months-gap between the Japan release and the US/EU one.