US PoliERA 2018 |OT10| Next week has been exhausting

#1
I'm old enough to remember when we took an entire month to finish OTs.
(Also every other possible title before November 6th is pointless.)

Just a few reminders:


- This thread isn't a venting ground for EtcetEra threads. (But the Discord is!)
- This thread isn't a Twitter feed or a live TV comment feed, so either give some context for what you're posting about or don't fuckin' do it


My favorites:

For understanding policy and political science in the US:
  • The Weeds (Vox) - more focused on policy than drama, very informative, they have a 'white paper of the week' segment where they go over new poli-sci research. Not as dry as you'd expect though (my overall favorite).
The Supreme Court:
  • Amicus (Slate) - Dahlia Lithwick is a great court reporter and has fantastic guests on to talk about the supreme court (often guests that are directly involved with relevant cases), though her guests are usually from the left so sometimes you come away a little overoptimistic -- still incredibly informative though.
For fantastic interviews:
  • Ezra Klein Show (Vox) - deep dives into big ideas, important subjects. Ezra has one of the best interview styles in the business and he makes sure each minute is packed full of valuable insight.
Peek into the criminal justice system:
  • Stay Tuned with Preet - former US attorney Preet Bahara knows his stuff and has great guests on to talk about the law and criminal justice system
National Security:
  • The Lawfare Podcast - centered around national security but branching off into all sorts of areas, each episode offers a serious discussion about a given topic
Debates:
  • Intelligence Squared Debates - literally Oxford style debates, 2v2 in 3 stages. Great way to be informed of both sides of an argument over any given topic.
Economics:
  • Slate Money - business, finance, macroeconomics, monetary policy, regulations -- very informative and somehow they make all this stuff entertaining
  • Planet Money (NPR) - shorter, more produced, not quite as in the weeds
General political discussion podcasts:
  • Political Gabfest (Slate) - John Dickerson of CBS This Morning, Emily Bazlon of NYT, David Plotz (formerly at Slate) each bring their own bit of expertise for a well rounded discussion
  • Pod Save America (Crooked Media) - former aides to Obama provide an entertaining and uncommonly insider look into politics
Daily podcasts for your Alexa Flash Briefing:
  • Up First (NPR) - brief overview of today's stories
  • The Daily (NYT) - similar, but they usually have a deeper dive into a particular story that isn't necessarily breaking news
From across the aisle:
  • The Daily Standard (The Weekly Standard) - if you want to expose yourself to conservatives, this is gonna be the most reasonable, least annoying one. But they're still conservatives.
  • If you can't stand a whole podcast of conservatives, KCRW's Left Right & Center is what it sounds like and is pretty good but Rich Lowry is more Trumpy than the people at The Weekly Standard.
Series podcasts (these explore specific topics like documentaries):
  • Slow Burn (Slate) - each season explores a major scandal so you can get a sense of how it felt as it was happening -- the first season is about Nixon and Watergate, the second season is about Clinton's Monica Lewinski scandal
  • More Perfect (Radiolab) - exploring the history of the Supreme Court -- super, SUPER fascinating.
  • The Wilderness (Crooked Media) - a series exploring how the Democratic Party can save itself and the country.
  • The RFK Tapes - similar to Slow Burn, goes back to look at Robert F Kennedy's assassination
  • What Trump Can Teach Us About Con Law - a series that uses recent Trump news as a jumping off point to teach constitutional law, hosted by constitutional law professor Elizabeth Joh and the guy that does 99% Invisible (another good podcast but less political)

Final primary: Louisiana, November 6th (House elections)
THEN THE ULTIMATE HELLCYCLE BEGINS

Previous threads:
US PoliERA 2018 |OT9| Next week has been EXHAUSTING
US PoliERA 2018 |OT8| Democrats projected to gain F5 seats
US PoliERA 2018 |OT7| Tell Me The Bad Things That Happened Since I Fell Asleep
US PoliERA 2018 |OT6| An Unmitigated Disaster
US PoliERA 2018 |OT5| A Total Goat Rodeo
US PoliERA 2018 |OT4| Sweetheart, this is Watergate, goodbye!
US PoliERA 2018 |OT3| In Like a Lamb, Out Like a Ryan

US PoliEra 2018 |OT2| Flip, Flip, Flip-a-Gatesia
US PoliEra 2018 |OT| Welcome to the Resistance, the only funded organization in D.C.

US PoliEra 2017 |OT3| This thread was created with a one vote margin
US PoliEra 2017 |OT2| Tinkle Traitor Soldier Spy
US PoliEra 2017 |OT| At least Rand Paul had a lawn to cushion the blow
 
#2
Kavanaugh will not be confirmed. I don't even think it will be close. Something like 55-45 against confirmation. Once the writing is on the wall more will awaken from the cave (the main three bring it to 52, probably Portman, Sasse and pick the next best of the worst...Paul, probably because he's an ophthalmologist and the jokes would write themselves if he were to vote "yea") . Only the true evildoers will vote him in.
 
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#4
I'm 51, and I can remember when I was six my mother whooping and hollering in the car one day. She turned to me and showed me the front page of the newspaper, which read in 80pt type, "AGNEW RESIGNS". I had no idea what either of those words meant.
 
#5
I'm still 75% on him getting confirmed, though that's down from the 90-95% I had last week! Nothing has fundamentally changed since before his confirmation hearings, through the accusations and the hearing last week and the new misconduct reveals the last few days. We're in the same boat of inexplicably wondering how Collins and/or Murkowski will vote yes.
Only the true evildoers will vote him in.
You know that's still like 48 or 49 votes, right?
 
#6
Kavanaugh will not be confirmed. I don't even think it will be close. Something like 55-45 against confirmation. Once the writing is on the wall more will awaken from the cave (the main three bring it to 52, probably Portman, Sasse and pick the next best of the worst...Paul, probably because he's an ophthalmologist and the jokes would write themselves if he were to vote "yea") . Only the true evildoers will vote him in.
You would probably need to be on Ayahuasca to envision this scenario.

Would be great if this ended up being how it went down though.
 
#10
And so begins and ends the Ballad of Bart O'Kavanaugh.

Also, Bernie and his bros sure do know which side of their bread to butter.
Article says theSenste hasn’t set up any special procedure and would have to clear 60 votes to beat a filibuster. This is nothing but grandstanding, and it make some think a little less of Bernie tbqh.
 
#15
Article says theSenste hasn’t set up any special procedure and would have to clear 60 votes to beat a filibuster. This is nothing but grandstanding, and it make some think a little less of Bernie tbqh.
The plan was to force Dems to vote against it.

Thankfully they sure played themselves with Kav
 
#16
Kavanaugh will not be confirmed. I don't even think it will be close. Something like 55-45 against confirmation. Once the writing is on the wall more will awaken from the cave (the main three bring it to 52, probably Portman, Sasse and pick the next best of the worst...Paul, probably because he's an ophthalmologist and the jokes would write themselves if he were to vote "yea") . Only the true evildoers will vote him in.
Trying to imagine a world where Portman, the dude that's been the point man working with Kavanaugh during this whole process, votes against him. Portman has done absolutely nothing to earn him any sort of "best of the worst" badge and has done everything to prove he's part of the "true evildoers" club.

Kavanaugh isn't getting less than 48 votes.
 
#17
Expecting Rob Portman to do anything that wouldn't be slathering his mouth all over the balls of an anthropomorphization of the Republican agenda is like expecting an oven at 450 degrees to feel cold to the touch, in that you're totally welcome to think that but it's gonna be your own damn fault when you get burnt.

The only half-decent opinion that man has ever had literally only exists because his son came out.
 
#18
Trying to imagine a world where Portman, the dude that's been the point man working with Kavanaugh during this whole process, votes against him. Portman has done absolutely nothing to earn him any sort of "best of the worst" badge and has done everything to prove he's part of the "true evildoers" club.
Okay. So maybe he votes yes then. I highly doubt some of these people want to be on record as voting for a failed SC nominee and for these reasons why. The ads write themselves. Which ones will peel...I dunno, perhaps waterboy, but I think Kavanaugh loses by a margin larger than 52-48...that was my main point.
 
#19
I highly doubt some of these people want to be on record as voting for a failed SC nominee and for these reasons why. The ads write themselves.
Portman in particular absolutely doesn't give a shit what he's on record as voting for, because the only way he's losing that particular seat is if the election cycle somehow reverts to the Depression era starting this year
 
#22
Final primary: Louisiana, November 6th (House elections)
THEN THE ULTIMATE HELLCYCLE BEGINS
1. Louisiana is dumb.
2. Imagine if the Senate splits 50-50 on election day and control of the Senate comes down to Espy pulling off a miracle in the runoff for the MS special election (D:)
3. Definitely not excited about a Trump lame duck if (when) Republicans lose bigly. Here there be dragons.

4. My family decided to plan a reunion of sorts that'll take place in the LITERAL DAYS BEFORE THE MIDTERMS (like, the "return home" day is actually Nov 6) and I'm secretly dreading it, in no small part because the plan involves me accompanying my conservative parents on the lengthy roadtrip there & back. On the plus side, I won't have to pay for airfare, gas, lodging, whatever. Downside? Being trapped in close quarters with folks who watch fox news and listen to talk radio all day and will randomly bitch about NFL players kneeling or whatever the culture war issue of the moment is. Gonna try my best to keep some headphones in and bite my tongue if any nonsense comes up.
 
#24
i'm probably gonna be streaming for 16 hours like 4 days after the election and then flying out to DC once my body's done recovering from that

so that's gonna be a fun week
 
#25
hopefully next week i'll be exhausted from celebrating the defeat of kavanaugh

but this week is going to be one hell of a run-up to that vote
 
#28
I'm 51, and I can remember when I was six my mother whooping and hollering in the car one day. She turned to me and showed me the front page of the newspaper, which read in 80pt type, "AGNEW RESIGNS". I had no idea what either of those words meant.
I was six when Kennedy was shot. I had no idea what a president was, and only the vaguest notion of what the USA was, but it was a big thing in our family on account of Kennedy being a Catholic.
 
#30
Wishing the weekend would come soon so I don't have to spend much time thinking if the senate will ascend the liar and maybe rapist to the SCOTUS.

Also legitimately questioning how a Joe Biden run for president wouldn't immediately sink ala Jeb! considering the
#MeToo movement and now the bullshit being dredged up from the Anita Hill hearing.
 
#32

They seem to want to get there though
Democrats can point to apparent contradictions in statements by Kavanaugh’s former classmates and his testimony to senators last week about his drinking as a younger man, as well as phrases in his high school yearbook, but that doesn’t amount to tangible proof of a deliberately misleading response.

“The things he was talking about that reasonable, thinking people believe he was lying about … those things are just too fuzzy,” said Jennifer Rodgers, a former federal prosecutor and lecturer at Columbia Law School. “They could call for it as a political play. I just think it’s very tough as a prosecutable case.”

Paul Butler, a professor at Georgetown Law School, pointed out that bringing any criminal case against Kavanaugh would require proof that the statements at issue were “material’ to his testimony.”

“Another issue would be whether the discrepancies are just issues of characterization or semantics, i.e. what's ‘sloppy drunk’ to one person is ‘sometimes I had a few too many’ to Kavanaugh,” Butler said by email.
To keep in mind.
 
#34
Wishing the weekend would come soon so I don't have to spend much time thinking if the senate will ascend the liar and maybe rapist to the SCOTUS.

Also legitimately questioning how a Joe Biden run for president wouldn't immediately sink ala Jeb! considering the
#MeToo movement and now the bullshit being dredged up from the Anita Hill hearing.
Only way it happens is with a “big name” woman as VP - Harris, Gillbrand, Klobuchar. And it’s debatable if that wouldn’t look just as bad but in a different way - the optics of a highly competent woman playing second banana to an old white guy are not great.
 
#36
Ah! A new thread to barepy post in because its going too fast. :P
To continue from the previous thread, my first political memory/news memory other than 9/11 vaguely was watching the 2004 results with my grandma and seeing Bush getting reelected again and seeing her get all emotional about it. Sad night. :(
For reference, I'm 23 and was born in '94.
 
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